Market Strategy for This Week - Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Last week

Following Trump's tariff implementation approval for the first time, the market turned risk-off, and USD/JPY dropped from the low 151 yen level to temporarily breaching the 146 yen range by week's end.

At the start of the week, risk-off sentiment continued due to Trump's remarks suggesting a recession, with stocks plummeting and USD/JPY currently trading in the mid-146 yen range, updating recent lows.

Last Friday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida stated that 'if economic projections are achieved, the BOJ may pursue further rate hikes,' which also served as a selling factor for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY confirms a downtrend. If it rises above the 150 yen level from here, a medium-term short strategy is recommended. Stop loss at 154 yen, take profit at 141 yen.

Following OPEC+ deciding to gradually increase production from April, combined with President Trump's friendly remarks toward Moscow, crude oil futures are supported on the supply side, with WTI crude falling to the 65 dollar range due to over-supply concerns.

The decline in WTI crude is difficult to assess due to very high uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ trends and Russia-related sanctions, so we are watching and waiting.

Meanwhile, gold prices fell to $2,900 per ounce, but while trade tensions continue to pressure market sentiment keeping prices relatively supported, Fed Chair Powell stated on Friday that 'despite heightened economic uncertainty, I do not feel a sense of urgency about rate cuts,' causing gold prices to weaken slightly.

Prices have declined from $2,940 to below $2,900. For gold on a long-term basis, any breaks below $2,750 should be bought.