Market Strategy This Week - February 18, 2025 (Tuesday)

Last week, the market moved significantly due to new Trump tariffs, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony on Tuesday, and the notable CPI report on Thursday.

Trump's tariffs impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products. With Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony stating "we are not in a hurry to cut rates," the dollar strengthened, and USD/JPY closed in the latter half of the 151 yen range. It was sold down to the first half of 151 yen at the market open on Monday and is being supported from there.

The background to this USD/JPY selling pressure is the sharp rise in Japanese government bond 10-year yields and speculation that the BOJ may raise rates as early as May. However, the 150 yen level appears to be strong support.

For USD/JPY, take short-term longs in the 150 yen range, with stop-losses below 150 yen.

WTI crude oil prices are being pressured by expectations of increased supply from Iraq and Russia, falling to approximately $70.12 per barrel on Tuesday.

Additionally, amid the possibility of peace negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict taking place in Saudi Arabia this week, the tone remains weak.

For WTI crude oil, the $70 level appears firm, but if it breaks below, there may be opportunities for contrarian longs with stop-losses placed below $67.

Gold maintains strong buying interest as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to ease, though some skirmishes persist.

President Trump's reciprocal tariffs escalating global trade friction is also a bullish factor.

However, technically a peak is approaching, so new buys from here are not recommended.

From a long-term perspective, gold offers buying opportunities below $2,750.