This Week's Market Strategy - January 14, 2025 (Tuesday)

Last week, ahead of the employment statistics, US long-term interest rates and the dollar index continued to rise. However, as the employment statistics came in much stronger than expected, speculation that the number of rate cuts this year would be fewer caused long-term interest rates and the dollar to accelerate higher. USD/JPY also followed this trend and continued to rise at times, but amid speculation about the possibility of an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY showed some weakness at the start of the week. The low for USD/JPY over the past week was 156.241 yen on Monday last week, and the high was 158.881 yen immediately after the employment statistics.

USD/JPY appears likely to rise further, but breaking through 160 yen in one go would be difficult. From here, selling is recommended in the 159 yen range, with a stop loss above 160 yen. Conversely, a decline to the 154-155 yen range is recommended for buying.

WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3% on Friday and yesterday. This was driven by reports of new US energy sanctions against Russia. Yesterday's close was at $78.82 per barrel. This is the highest level since August last year. However, with the Biden administration ending one week ago, there is a question as to whether this will carry over to the Trump administration.

WTI crude oil: sell at 82 dollars, stop loss above 85 dollars.

Gold prices rose despite cautious sentiment emerging that the Fed would hold rates steady through the latter half of this year, as the employment statistics were strong. There is persistent speculation that the Trump administration's tariff policies will accelerate inflation. Technically, downward pressure does not appear likely to intensify. For gold with a long-term perspective, 2,600-2,650 dollars is a buy level.

Short-term: short at $2,725, stop loss at $2,800, take profit at $2,510. The $2,725 short from last week is recommended for partial profit-taking.