This Week's Market Strategy - September 17, 2024 (Tuesday)

Last week, U.S. CPI reached its lowest level since February 2021. This is a yen-strengthening factor. USD/JPY finally broke below 140 and was sold down to the mid-139 range yesterday. Currently in recovery. This week's key event is the U.S. FOMC in the early hours of Thursday the 19th. A rate cut is priced in, but will it be a 0.25% or 0.50% cut? The 0.25% cut is already priced into the market, but if we see a 0.50% cut, the selling pressure on USD/JPY would definitely be substantial, even if momentary.

Gold is updating record highs at $2,615 as a rate cut is assured at this week's FOMC and the dollar index continues to decline. Gold remains bullish for the rest of the year, so a long position is recommended on dips. However, in the medium to long term, it may decline next year.

WTI crude oil: while the hurricane has passed, 20% of oil production remains offline. With a 0.50% rate cut from the FOMC being quite possible, it is recovering toward $70. However, China's economy is lackluster. Therefore, crude's upward pressure lacks strength. Technically, a bottom is near.

In summary, USD/JPY is a short-term selling opportunity. Current longs should exit and reverse to shorts at 143-145. The downside target is 137, so take profits before that level. Gold: buy on dips to $2,560. Stop loss if it breaks below $2,500; for medium to long term, hold strong. Crude oil may decline one more time, so short at $75.